On Tuesday, March 28, 2006, the citizens of Israel will be heading to the polls to elect their representatives for the Israeli parliament – the “Knesset”. The Israeli parliament consists of 120 members who run the country through the government they form after the electuary process.
The election campaign going on in Israel is, to date, calm and serene, there is no feeling that a political earthquake is going to hit the state. The majority of the population is indifferent, and it is likely to assume that many voters will not exercise their civil right to vote come Election Day.
The Israeli Knesset is made of two major blocks and two minor ones. The larger blocks are the Center-Left wing block and the Right wing one. The Arab parties and the religious ones constitute the minor blocks.
Usually, a dominant block, or a hindering-block is formed, either from the Left or from the Right. Today, the general feeling is that the “Kadima” party, founded by Ariel Sharon, will win and attain 35 seats (again, out of 120), the Labor party and Left wing party – Meretz – together some 25 seats. Along with the Arab votes, which will sum to about 10 seats, one can expect a majority of 70 Knesset members from the Center-Left block.
Indeed, this is a rational and reasonable prediction, with a regular span for error of five seats towards the Left or Right. On the other hand, an opposite situation is defiantly plausible. One must remember that the Right wing block includes hundreds of thousands angry citizens who are disappointed from the disengagement from the Gaza strip and from the Amona setelment incidents a month ago, and most recently from the rise of the Hammas to power in the Palestinian Authority.
In the eyes of those hundreds of thousands, we are on the way to disaster. To them, Israel has lost all sense of direction, and believe that it is their job to bring the downfall of Ehud Olmert (The current Acting PM) and the Center-Left block. If Olmert’s party, “Kadima” will be the one to assemble the next government, in the eyes of the Right wing supports, this will mean a return to the 1967 borders with minute border alterations, and there can be no larger catastrophe than that.
The Center-Left block is indifferent to the upcoming elections, but the Right block is apprehensive and restless. It is possible, that in these elections, only some 65%-70 % of the population will vote, i.e. 30%-35 % will not even bother to make it to the poll. This will mean that the Right block will be able to consolidate enough parliamentary power to hinder the Kadima party in forming a new government. This will lead to a situation where Netanyahu, along with Lieberman, the National union party and the religious parties, including the national religious party, will form the next government. There is no doubt in my mind, that if this happens we are about to witness a horridness blood bath in our region.
We must start today in awakening the Israeli peace camp and the center one as well, to snap them out of their indifference otherwise we will wake after election day to a new reality in the Middle east. The main drive pushing the Right wing block to operate in Israel is the victory of Hammas. I will not be surprised if this victory will eventually bring to the Israeli Right wing’s one.
The Middle East has always been a place full of “surprises”. Let us hope that this prophesy does not come true.
There is a way to prevent this disaster.
If you want to know the answer – write us an e-mail.
Yitzhak Frankenthal
